Saturday, July 17, 2010

Berglas Effect Revealed ... Sort of...

First of all, this is what I know about Berglas Effect. It is not copied, inspired, or learned from any other resources.


BE PREPARED: Berglas Effect is a cool trick, just like any other magic trick, the method is never as cool as the trick itself! When you see some magic trick, you think that “how is the prediction all a sudden showed up in this piece of paper”, well, the magician wrote on it with a big marker while you (the audience) is distracted.

The method:

Before posting the method, I would like to show you a whole bunch of Q&As. This is because:

1. Like I said before, the trick is cool, but the method is not. If you see the method first, all you say is “no, this is not it!” I just want to convince you with these Q&As, before we get into the method.

2. After finish reading the Q&As, you will have a overall understanding about Berglas Effect. You don’t really need the method section.

Q&As


Q: What is Berglas Effect?

Berglas effect is known as the "Holy Grail" of Card Magic, which is also known as ACAAN (Any Card At Any Number).

The trick has four requirements:

1. The cards are on view before the trick starts
2. A spectator freely names any card. They are not a stooge and can freely choose any one of the 52 cards, no restrictions.
3. Another spectator freely names any number between 1 and 52. They are not a stooge and have a free choice, no restrictions.
4. A third spectator is invited to count down to the chosen number. The performer does not touch the cards.


To me, Berglas Effect is a combination of memorization, probability, presentation, audience control, even sleight of hand.

Q: If someone (even David himself) performs Berglas Effect 100 times, can all 100 performances fulfill all four restrictions?

No! Only a percentage of the performances can fulfill all four restrictions. That is why I mentioned: it is about probability.

Many of you may start to question my theory, let me explain:

Let’s look at the four requirements in a mathematical way. These four requirements are equivalent to saying something like “think of a number between 1 and 52, I can guess what is your number in mind”.

Can you succeed? Yes, one out of 52 times. Which means anyone who try to perform Berglas Effect, will have one success out of 52 performances.

Of course, an experienced magician will have a much better percentage than 1 out of 52. This is when the rest of the factors like memorization, presentation and audience control become important.

Q: I still believe that there are people such as David Berglas can perform the trick 100% fulfilling the four requirements.


Again, saying something like that is equivalent to saying “think of a number between 1 and 52, and I can guess your number EVERY SINGLE TIME”. It is simply impossible.

Let’s don’t talk about the method for a second. Just imagine YOU are the one has such power. What would you do?

You will start to perform this like a million times to prove that you have such power, right? Maybe even film all the different performances, put it on your website or youtube, right?

Now ask yourself, have you seen anyone who claim that they know Berglas Effect tried to perform this over and over? If I had the power to perform this 100%, I will start doing different shows, big ones, small ones, live TV, and put all the clips on Youtube. Have you seen such clips? No! All you see are just one or two performences from long times ago.

Correct me if I was wrong: Marc Paul claimed that the he knows the secret about Berglas Effect. Why do I only see two clips for his performance on Youtube? If he can perform it 100%, perform more often, tape them and show people, this is only going to make you more famous.

You might think that maybe there are some other reasons that he doesn’t perform it over and over.

Like what? Afraid of giving the secret away after too many people saw his handling?

I understand you don’t want to repeat a trick over and over, because after audience (especially the same group of audience) sees your handling over and over, he might start to get a clue.

In order to fulfill all 4 requirements, there is not much handling, nothing to give away! This trick is not about handling, magician barely touches the card.

The only reason you don’t see them perform over and over is: there is only a percentage of their performances can meet all four requirements. Doing this over and over is going to give away the real secret about Berglas Effect: you don’t get to fulfill the 4 requirements all the time.

Q: Only 1 out of 52 performance can meet all four requirements. Is a really small chance, right?

Yes, 1 out of 52 is small. However, with some very simple presentation (will be cover under Method Section), you can easily bring the success rate up to more than 1 out 10 (10%).

Q: If the success rate of fulfilling the requirements is only 10%, what about the rest of the 90%?

Different magicians have different method to cover the 90%, which does not fully fulfill the requirements. However, it will create almost the same effect from the audience perspective.

This is will be covered under Method Section.

Q: I sill don’t believe your theory. Do you have some proves?

There is no way I can prove me right, expect David himself said so.

How about you guys tried to prove me wrong? I have two questions here. If anyone can answer one of my questions, it is equivalent to prove me wrong.

1. Fulfilling all four requirements is equivalent to be able to guess random number between 1 and 52. How is that scientific or mathematically possible?
2. To fulfill all four requirements, this is a trick without handling. The performance part is easy. If someone (including David Berglas) really has the method that has 100% accuracy, why we can hardly find any sources that shows their performances?

30 comments:

  1. Great overview. Can't wait to see more on this topic. I'm been mystified by this trick for years, so I'm excited to learn more about it. Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I disagree you assertion. Let me fist answer your questions

    1. Fulfilling all four requirements is equivalent to be able to guess random number between 1 and 52. How is that scientific or mathematically possible?

    This is not a good question. This merely reflect you can not figure out the hidden secret so that you come out this question. Just like when a child see you perform a simple prediction cart trick, and duo to his lack of knowledge, he conclude that this must be a "lucky trick".


    2. To fulfill all four requirements, this is a trick without handling. The performance part is easy. If someone (including David Berglas) really has the method that has 100% accuracy, why we can hardly find any sources that shows their performances?

    If you are a smart magician, you will not do this trick in front of TV
    too many times. I do know that Berglas have done this trick to many magicians in private., You know, for ordinary people, they can not tell the difference between this trick and other tricks, to them, they are all amazing in almost the same level. Berglas do not need to keep doing the same trick to earn money, since I believe he has a lot of other mental magic trick can use in TV. If him want a legendary reputation, he should protect this trick. By the way, how do you know Berglas do not use the similar method in other trick, since we do not know what is the secret. But, certainly, he will package them in a totally different presentation so that people will think he is doing another new trick with different principle. I think there are lots of Berglas' tricks remain open problem, but just this cast trick is very simple in routine so that people pay much attention.

    By the way, recently, there is a magician perform the Berglas effect just in front of the Berglas himself. He did a good job, even Berglas said he may done better.

    see: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKAcfWDkFN0

    in fact, he do the seconed time is his local town

    see:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCaBwZ3F6Ow

    And I think this is not a lucky trick as you think, since this is an official international magic conference, with many famous magician get together, It is also a lives show for who have paid the money, so that they can watch at their home, and there is no way to shift it to another trick if he failed, because he already claimed in advance that he will do the Berglas effect!

    It will be good to have any comments on my personal perspective.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Chinese video was interesting as the number selected was 49 and the card was the 9 of Spades.

      Part of the trick is picking a number from 1-52, but in turning over the 49 cards, one of them was a joker.

      Is only a small shift in the odds, but something tells me that joker is in for a reason, else it would be a number from 1 to 53 and the Joker could be a selected card, but those options are NOT offered.

      Doesn't SOLVE the mystery, if anything, it creates more questions. But the fact of the Joker being in the deck is relevant.

      Delete
  3. It's a: 1 in 52 chance of getting the right position, it's also a: 1 in 52 chance of getting the right card.
    52 x 52 = 2,704 combinations.
    So if you get it right once in 2,704 performances it still won't be a trick you'd want to keep performing.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's not a 1 in 2704 chance. It is 1 in 52!

      You know the position. There IS a card in any named numbered position, right?

      How many possibilities are there for the card in the named position? Just 52.

      You don't have to guess the number. You just have to name the card in a given position.

      I think there may be ways to greatly improve the odds, as he suggested. But I cannot think of any magic principle that can fulfill the 4 requirements every time.

      Delete
    2. @Washington: Except the magician doesn't name the card. Somebody else does. He controls neither position nor card selection. Thus 1/52 x 1/52 = 1 in 2704.

      Delete
    3. Sorry Justin/MentalShark/Dee but the odds are 1 in 52.

      The fact that the the magician doesn't control the position of the card is completely irrelavant from a mathematical sence.

      Although there are 2704 different combinations of position/card that the audience could choose, because at any given position there are only 52 possible cards that it could be, if you tried this trick at home, randomly shouting out a card and a position, purely by chance, you'd be correct once every 52 tries on average not once every 2704.

      Mathematically you could think about it this way. If you draw a tree diagram where the first choice is the choice of number and the second was the choice of card. Although there are 2704 possibilities as soon as the audience member chooses a position it becomes a case of conditional probability and the chances of being right drop down to 1 in 52.

      go math

      Delete
    4. You're actually both right. It's 1/52 odds of success with no setup. It's 1/52^2 (roughly, that can be refined) that any setup done ahead of time will be correct by chance.

      Delete
  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Its certainly not 1 in 52 chance.

    There are two variables chosen outside your control. Position and card. It is true that there IS a card in any named numbered but it might NOT be the right card. Hence the gents are correct, the chance is 1 in 2704. Its math, not a guesstimate.

    Also, the same can be said about the lack of existing video performance, how about lack of failures reported or video taped? if the chances are so slim that it will failed, where are the failed performances? how come no one ever talks about that David Berglas failed at performing his famed magic? and so happens that every time he decides to perform one, he hits the jackpot (let it be 1 in 52 or 1 in 2704)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As soon as the first audience member names the card, the odds change to 1 in 52. What card is named is irrelevant, since all the cards are in the deck. If you flip it around so the number is named first, it's the same, since all numbers are within the number of cards in the deck.

      Delete
  6. A few observations:
    1) This whole thing might be more credible if you had actually spelled "magician" correctly in your screen name. That kind of error doesn't really lead one to believe you have much background in magic.
    2) No illusion that was only successful 1 out of 10 times would ever be performed by a professional magician in front of a group of his or her peers, let alone become the very definition of the "holy grail" of card tricks.
    3) All in all, this is not a credible explanation of how the illusion is done so much as it is a demonstration of classic "logical fallacy". You're really just guessing at how the illusion is performed then deconstructing your own notions. Guessing games are fun, but this is no more or less than that.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Question: Where did you get those four "rules" for the Berglas effect? I've seen it worded the same way before. Rules 2 and 3 specifically say that the participant cannot be a stooge, but Rule 4 says nothing of the sort for the third participant. If that is how Berglas himself outlined the trick's restrictions, then the third participant may be a stooge.

    If not, then I would venture to guess that the "trick" was convincing all of us, and apparently most magicians, that he genuinely followed those four rules. But he probably didn't.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with you about "rule four" of The Berglas Effect. It would be virtually impossible without the third participant being a stooge. Read my recent blog for a full explanation of the routine. This is a fresh view of it and leaves no question unanswered. At least I hope it does!

      http://jkeyes1000.wordpress.com/2012/08/02/the-berglas-e/

      Delete
  8. Ugh, people. The probability is 1 in 52. But the fact that so many on here think that it is less probable than it really is goes to show what a great effect it is.

    ReplyDelete
  9. The spectator names a card and then the second spectator has to have the 1/52 chance of picking the right card. Hence, the probability should be 1/52.

    In any case, it's concluded that it's improbable.

    The principle of the trick is similar to Dai Vernon's 'The Trick The Can't be Explained'. The method is 100%.

    ReplyDelete
  10. David Berglas for some reason is a master at designing tricks to fool us. Reading this blog has simply glorified David Berglas's objective, which is to fool to us and make us try to figure how the trick was done.
    The Berglas effect can be performed by David 100 times and every time he will count out the chosen card. This is because the effect is method not chance.

    2 times in 52 is to probable if there is no method used. So that fact rules out that this trick is chance.

    All his tricks are based on method.
    His tricks are also designed to deny our ability to understand them. Sometimes we can figure them.

    Thr truth is David is smart, he found a way to deceive us but he has never once defied the laws of nature hence he is old now.

    He is a humble old man.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Listen the last words of this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDTd9Y6sqUs
    and i found a brazilian who can do this trick too:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZBwvLU_7l0

    ReplyDelete
  12. The Berglas effect does not work automatically! I am learning it, taught by Berglas. David's methos uses skill and he does not touch the cards!

    ReplyDelete
  13. this is not a "Berglas Effect Revealed" it is a discussion/thoughts that you have about it.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Here some possible explanations:

    Of course there are several ways to achieve an ACAAN with memorized stacks, bottom dealing, gimmicked decks and so on...

    But the shuffled or random cards with audience performance without touching the cards I think is about pre show collaboration:

    the requirements don't say that the final spectator must not be a stooge. So basically I think with some misdirection something happens. I cannot figure it out in other ways, unless of course using a si stebbins or other stacks and do some calculations and fast moves with the deck out of the box.

    ReplyDelete
  15. I wonder if there is a way with clever presentation; that if you are wrong, of making the failure become a part of a different trick.

    ReplyDelete
  16. 1pilami learning this trick 2 years and i know how is done .. Who want buy tutorial from me contact my Skype jiri-kliment name Activity ... I am frist who selling it hurry up guys ^^

    ReplyDelete
  17. Really very amazing and very nice and fantastic information about the card tricks.
    card tricks revealed

    ReplyDelete
  18. Thank you i did really need this topic you share a very nice information about the Maju it's great work.
    Maju

    ReplyDelete
  19. It is his book. The probability of being a card being at a number is about one seventeenth, not one out of 52. I won't say any more, but I will say that I know it and it is not a typical magic trick, discard any method that you are thinking of.

    ReplyDelete
  20. You are confused. There is a difference between probability and possibility. It is possible that I will have $10000000 in 2 seconds however the odds are slim.

    Your explanation is based on the assumption that the volunteers will choose a different number every time. This is incorrect, if they are not stoges then they will have the ability to pick the same number so maths is not the solution. It's the physicological aspept of tge performance. Planting the card in that person's mind, planting the number in the next person's mind. Choosing the people based on previous information and how the trick work the other times. Things like their body language appearances, facial expressions . The volatile variables need to be eliminated in order for the trick to be consistent.

    ReplyDelete
  21. How to Make Money from gambling with a Win Casino
    Once you have a casino, you have to create a casino account. This will be the first step in completing หารายได้เสริม your registration. Once you have finished

    ReplyDelete
  22. Gambling/Casino - Mapyro
    The Mapyro® locator 아산 출장마사지 is located directly across the street 동두천 출장안마 from the Boardwalk and is the locator 목포 출장마사지 for 포항 출장마사지 the Casino located in Atlantic City. 양주 출장마사지

    ReplyDelete